연약한 휴전과 장례식, 스태포드 의석을 놓고 정당들의 경쟁 시작

After a snap byelection call, Labor and the LNP briefly paused campaigns this week to farewell Jimmy Sullivan. Now, seven others have thrown their hats in the ring.

Agreement among political parties is a rare thing in an election campaign. Queensland, with its winner-takes-all culture, is no exception – even in a single-seat byelection.

But, sometimes, it does happen. Hence, the campaign truce struck between Labor and the LNP on Wednesday as mourners farewelled the late Stafford MP Jimmy Sullivan.

Whether the truce held is another thing. While there was a notable absence of activity on the ground and on social media, inside the walls of parliament it was a different story.

Within an hour of MPs filing into the chamber for the later sitting, talk of the May 16 byelection – the snap nature of which caught those outside government off-guard – was in the air.

First out of the gate was Greenslopes Labor MP Joe Kelly, deputy chair of the government-controlled health, environment and innovation committee, with venom levelled at its chair.

The LNP’s Rob Molhoek, Kelly said, had agreed to postpone a private meeting of the committee set down for that day and Kelly’s arrangements for a substitute to attend a public one.

Instead, an extra public briefing appeared on the schedule with the Metro North Hospital and Health Service for 11.30am – during Sullivan’s funeral, who Kelly said he considered a friend.

That meeting was ultimately pushed back to Thursday. But Kelly said to have sprung such a meeting on the committee under such circumstances was “dishonest and disgraceful”.

A few minutes later in question time, Crisafulli was peppered – as he was every day this week – with questions about the electoral enrolment particulars of Sports Minister Tim Mander.

Responding to one from deputy opposition leader Cameron Dick about when he was first informed of the relationship between Mander and cabinet colleague Amanda Camm, Crisafulli detoured.

After what the premier said was an interjection by Dick during his answer which used the word “Stafford”, Crisafulli launched into his thesis of what the pursuit of Mander was about.

“Those who understand politics understand the reality of byelections and what they mean for governments, but in this case we have an opposition that is not going very well at the moment – it is not travelling all that well – and it has a leader who is hanging by a thread,” Crisafulli stated.

“The truth is: keen observers of history will know that the last time there was a byelection in Stafford the opposition secured an 18 per cent swing towards it.”

Crisafulli then reiterated the double-digit swing benchmark he has imposed on Opposition Leader Steven Miles lest his Labor leadership come undone.

Both Deputy Premier Jarrod Bleijie and Mermaid Beach MP Ray Stevens later also took jabs at Labor’s candidate, and assistant state secretary, Luke Richmond.

Richmond, a lawyer with a health policy background, will be joined on the ballot paper by eight others, including the LNP’s 2024 candidate and former Brisbane councillor Fiona Hammond.

Announcing the full suite of nominated candidates after the cut-off and ballot draw on Friday, Electoral Commissioner Pat Vidgen noted such a showing was a strong field for a byelection.

Other previously known candidates include Liam Parry, the first person charged under the LNP’s Palestinian protest slogan ban – endorsed by the yet-to-be-registered Queensland Socialists.

Jess Lane, who polled 18 per cent for the Greens in 2024, works in education and wears a pro-Palestinian watermelon pin in her campaign material, announced on Friday she would also recontest.

These two alone likely help describe the marginal Labor inner-northern suburbs seat’s demographics to those unfamiliar: younger and with higher levels of renters and uni grads than the average.

Also on the left of centre are Lucy O’Brien (Animal Justice Party) and Jacqueline Varne (Legalise Cannabis Qld).

One Nation landed 3.2 per cent of the primary vote in 2024. With the party bowing out after early suggestions they might test their ascendent polling numbers on an actual ballot paper in their home state, however, only two other options will obviously sit to the right of the government.

These are Family First’s Alan Denaro, who managed only 1.9 per cent in 2024, and Daniel Selff (Libertarians). Damian Smart, with little online profile, will run as an independent.

Early voting for the more than 41,000 enrolled to do so will begin on May 5 and run until May 15. Postal votes can be requested until May 4.

Even before Lane’s candidacy was announced, Crisafulli was already batting away questions in parliament about any deal for One Nation to run by calling on Labor to reveal any “deal” for appearance on how-to-vote cards of the Greens, which he described as “an antisemitic movement”.

Crisafulli and his ministers used the week marking almost 18 months since their return to government to tout successes across crime, health, housing and cost-of-living.

Fuel security also remained high on the list of talking points and announcements, as new polling for this masthead showed the LNP losing some skin (even if Crisafulli continues riding high).

Labor continued its push for more immediate action on affordability concerns, and has focused much of the campaigning on expansion plans for the local Prince Charles hospital.

But the opposition also, for the first time, voted against a suite of the government’s flagship “adult time, adult crime” laws – albeit wrapped in some other, even more controversial, changes.

While this, and its recent rejection of the contentious, divisive and unpopular gun control and antisemitism laws, has given Labor more of the feel of an opposition, a tightening of its 5.3 per cent margin in Stafford – let alone a loss – could knock some wind out of that.

(And though party figures have previously pointed to an informal deadline later this year for Miles to boost Labor’s primary vote support based on the lessons taken from his 10-month runway to the 2024 election loss, LNP claims of leadership threats should be taken with a serving of salt).

Byelections, on average, tend to result in swings against the government and/or incumbent party, but not always.

Across the 23 for Queensland parliament back to 1996, the average swing against the government has been 4.2 per cent, while the average swing against the incumbent party has been 5.9 per cent.

Two of the most recent, for comparison, have produced the biggest shifts in voter support.

The high-water swing against a government was 21.5 per cent against Labor in Inala in early 2024, after the resignation of former premier Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Meanwhile, the biggest swing to a government came late last year, when the LNP prised Hinchinbrook from the Katter’s Australian Party with a swing of 16.87 per cent.

But those keen observers of politics and history invoked by Crisafulli are likely to know exactly those byelection realities for governments of which he spoke about on Wednesday.

For that reason, they’re also likely to see through exactly what it was he was doing: playing down his own expectations, while raising the stakes for his opponent. (Similar to what Labor folks are also doing in suggesting the contest will be tighter and could still, just, go their way).

Not to mention the fact the benchmark Crisafulli has picked to measure the results of both major parties comes from a very different and hubristic time in the state’s political history, which the LNP have often since fought quite hard to forget.

Start the day with a summary of the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights.

You have reached your maximum number of saved items.

Remove items from your saved list to add more.