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Facing a population projected to more than triple over the next two decades, concerned locals are worried about already struggling services keeping pace.

It’s taken Mandy McCracken years to assemble her dedicated support team of disability and allied health workers in her suburb of Kilmore East.

The mother of three, who is a quadruple amputee, has lived in the area for more than two decades. What was once a small regional council is now expected to be home to more than 221,000 people by 2045. But many locals, including McCracken, are concerned the development of key infrastructure isn’t on track with projected growth.

McCracken said that while more GP clinics were opening, and there were plans to develop new schools, many things still needed improvement and the new facilities were happening in a “trickle”, rather than keeping pace.

Occupational therapists and physiotherapist have long waiting periods. Accessible transport options, such as taxis to attend a medical appointment, need to be booked weeks in advance. Primary schools are overflowing, and an inadequate public transport system makes travelling difficult – particularly for those with disabilities.

“We as residents are beginning to realise just how big a problem it is,” McCracken said. “Now that we’ve got a flood of population coming, a trickle is just not going to be enough.”

Kilmore falls within the Mitchell Shire Council in Melbourne’s north, which also includes the suburbs of Beveridge, Wallan and Seymour. It is Melbourne’s least populated metropolitan council, but its size is projected to increase by 245 per cent over the next two decades by demographic data company Informed Decisions (ID), the biggest percentage increase in the state.

More than 157,000 new residents are expected to move to the area by 2045, according to ID data, a number topped by only Melton and Casey.

Although Mitchell’s population is set to boom, Mayor John Dougall said there was inadequate financial support from the state and federal governments when it came to investment in health and human services within the region.

“We’re about to undergo unprecedented growth in a period of fiscal austerity, and we’ve not been provided guarantees about how that future will roll out,” Dougall said.

The development of integral health, education and community infrastructure needed to be fast-tracked to keep up with growth, the mayor said. In particular, there is a critical need for more education facilities, a major hospital and more community hubs.

Mitchell Shire has 14 primary schools and only three secondary schools. The closest major hospital, Northern Hospital in Epping, which is more than 30 kilometres from the edge of the council area. Many residents rely on smaller rural health facilities in Kilmore and Seymour.

A new report examining the impact the predicted growth,

A key recommendation from the report was the introduction of a northern growth corridor infrastructure commission – a dedicated intergovernmental body that would fast-track key infrastructure projects.

While councils such as Wyndham, Casey and Hume were once flagged as the state’s primary expansion areas, Dougall said Mitchell Shire was the “new growth front”.

“There’s no dedicated regional hospital,” he said. “There’s no dedicated post-schooling education provider … These are big, big gaps, and they really provide a good example of the need to plan very deliberately.”

The council report argues that adequate future planning is made more difficult by the area’s geographic positioning between metropolitan Melbourne and regional Victoria. Dougall said that the municipality often fell into a “black spot” when it came to funding programs and data collection.

Craig Kenny, a local government adviser and expert who authored Mitchell Shire’s report, said the area’s geographical placement was a reason why its future needed to be considered on a wider, holistic scale.

For example, in the federal government’s Primary Health Network program – which are independent organisations introduced to manage health services – Mitchell Council is split between the Eastern Melbourne and Murray regions. These regions are headquartered in Box Hill and Bendigo, neither of which are located in Mitchell. Kenny said this meant the area was often overlooked or not prioritised.

“There is this issue of the fracturing of the planning framework for most government departments, and it needs that holistic examination,” Kenny said.

“Business-as-usual planning won’t fix this. Business-as-usual planning has caused the problem. If you go to Beveridge, physical infrastructure … has not been provided for this emerging community.”

McCracken said that locals would like to see all levels of government working together to develop a planning system that matched the future of the region.

“If we’re growing this community, which is fabulous, we need to have the infrastructure to support it. So that everyone gets to thrive,” McCracken said.

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