연방준비제도가 기준금리를 동결한 후 아시아 주식이 하락

Asian stocks are under pressure after the latest policy direction from the Federal Reserve sent a clear signal that US interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer, reinforcing a hawkish policy stance that is reshaping expectations across equity and bond markets.

Asian stocks are under pressure after the latest policy direction from the Federal Reserve sent a clear signal that US interest rates are likely to remain higher for longer, reinforcing a hawkish policy stance that is reshaping expectations across equity and bond markets.

The Stock Exchange of Thailand and most Asian exchanges fell on Thursday, tracking overnight losses on key Wall Street benchmarks after the Fed held its policy rate at 3.50-3.75%, marking the third consecutive pause this year, in line with market expectations.

However, the decision revealed deep divisions within the committee, with an 8-4 vote indicating the most dissent in decades, highlighting growing disagreement over the future policy path. Outgoing Fed chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation remains elevated, driven largely by persistent energy price pressures linked to geopolitical tensions.

The Fed's hawkish tone triggered a sharp sell-off in bonds, pushing US Treasury yields higher. US equities reacted with increased volatility, particularly in high-valuation technology stocks.

"US equities are entering a more volatile phase as US bond yields climb and valuation pressure intensifies," said Koraphat Vorachet, head of research at Krungsri Securities (KSS).

Technology stocks remain particularly sensitive due to premium valuations, while rising yields, especially in the 2-year and 10-year segments, are directly compressing equity multiples, noted the brokerage.

KSS recommends a selective investment approach or tactical portfolio trimming, particularly if US 10-year yields remain above the 4.5-4.6% threshold, which could continue to cap equity upside, he said.

The brokerage said Thailand stands out, supported by foreign inflows, and it recommends the banking, energy, refining, electronics and retail sectors. Tourism and ICT continue to lag amid macro headwinds.

The Bank of Thailand maintained its policy rate at 1% on Wednesday in a unanimous decision, signalling that current levels remain appropriate amid a slowing economy.

According to Asia Plus Securities (ASPS), stable domestic rates combined with a higher global rate environment are expected to support a gradual recovery in banks' net interest margins (NIM) in the second half of 2026.

The firm said NIM is likely to bottom out in the second quarter, though deposit repricing will support margin expansion, and banks with high floating-rate loan exposure stand to benefit most.

With global volatility rising, ASPS recommends investors focus on high-dividend Thai banking stocks as a defensive strategy.

Despite improving fundamentals, the banking sector has lagged the broader market, creating attractive risk-reward opportunities. Bangkok Bank and Kasikornbank are seen as laggard plays with catch-up potential, particularly ahead of interim dividend payouts mid-year, noted ASPS.

POLICY TRANSITION

While the Fed's current stance remains cautious and hawkish, markets increasingly look forward to potential policy easing under incoming chair Kevin Warsh, who is perceived as more dovish and potentially open to rate cuts if labour market conditions deteriorate later this year.

Still, the near-term trajectory hinges on bond yields, according to KSS.

"If yields remain elevated, equity markets may remain under pressure. If inflation eases, room opens for rate cuts and risk asset recovery," said the brokerage.

For now, analysts advocate a barbell strategy -- balancing selective exposure to global equities with high-dividend domestic plays, particularly in Thailand's banking sector, according to KSS.