미국-중국 패권 시대에서의 일본의 균형 외교

Tokyo's move toward defense spending of 2% of GDP is not militarism. It is overdue burden-sharing within an alliance that is the foundation of regional deterrence.

For all the talk of a coming multipolar world, the reality for Japan is simpler: The international system is still shaped above all by the United States and China.

Jennifer Lind, author of “Autocracy 2.0: How China’s Rise Reinvented Tyranny,” argues that only Washington and Beijing combine the economic, military, technological and diplomatic scale required for full great-power status. The 2025 Asia Power Index reaches a similar conclusion: India is rising, Russia remains a nuclear spoiler and Europe matters economically, but only the U.S. and China possess comprehensive power across all key dimensions.

In short, Japan and other middle powers face an enduring bipolar system — and, whether they like it or not, an erratic America in the interregnum between the outgoing order and whatever comes next.