이란의 영공 재개, 하지만 중동을 통한 항공편은 여전히 위험함

As airlines and passengers adjust to the war, there is a divergence between perceived safety and the potential for risk.

Iran partially reopened its eastern airspace this month, offering a positive sign for a region roiled by war.

The corridor had been shuttered since late February after US and Israeli airstrikes kicked off a war in which Iran has attacked the airports of Persian Gulf neighbours the United Arab Emirates and Qatar.

Uncertainty over the ceasefire extended by US President Donald Trump now hangs over commercial aviation. And it helps shape the thinking of people considering flying through the Middle East.

The OpsGroup website, which collates information on airspace, said: “In practice very few international operators are using this airspace so far – most major airlines are still avoiding Iran entirely.”

None of this prevents people from booking flights that use corridors in other parts of the region. Gulf carriers Qatar and Etihad have continued to fly to and from their hubs. So does Qantas partner Emirates. Booking such a ticket through Qantas triggers a pop-up window reminding passengers that the Australian government advises against such travel. But it’s only a reminder to check the government’s guidance; it doesn’t prevent people from booking.

Travel futurist Carolyn Childs of MyTravelResearch.com said that both the airlines and some passengers were simply looking through the official warnings.

“Airlines have got to do something. They need cash coming in, and they want to have a forward plan,” she said.

At the same time, some consumers are thinking that the only downside risk to booking is that an airline cancels the flight.

Emirates currently operates a reduced schedule to Sydney, Melbourne and Perth. Etihad serves Sydney and Melbourne. Qatar Airways flies from Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane, but its wet-lease partnership with Virgin is paused until June.

While the airlines and passengers adjust to the war, there is a divergence between perceived safety and the potential for risk.

Complicating things, the airlines’ own assessments of risks vary.

Khaled Al Mezaini, associate dean of Abu Dhabi’s Zayed University said the situation in the UAE “has improved significantly” compared to last month. “The immediate sense of risk has eased, and there have been no recent incidents directly affecting the UAE.”

For Australians, “travel decisions are still being shaped by perceptions of regional stability rather than conditions inside the UAE itself”, he said.

Although most major carriers have largely resumed normal operations, “albeit with some continued rerouting to avoid high-risk areas” … the situation is not fully “normalised”, Al Mezaini said. Airlines are still operating with a heightened level of caution, and risk calculations remain dynamic.

This week, Emirates CEO Tim Clark told a Berlin audience the airline was operating at 65 per cent of capacity and 13 per cent of the airports in its network were still not useable.

“Once this is over, it won’t take much for Emirates to get back in the saddle,” he said.

Full resumption of services will mark a dramatic change. From the beginning of the conflict on February 28 to April 1, Iran alone launched an estimated 6770 drones and missiles at targets through the Persian Gulf, Turkish media reported, including at airports in the United Arab Emirates.

If the risk calculus is shifting for airlines based in the Middle East, it’s also shifting for global travellers.

Childs said that in past periods of geopolitical uncertainty, people used to book 30 days out from travel, but that window is being extended. Now people will book much further out on the bet that hostilities wind down. Customers are thinking they will put money on a cheap flight and if the airline cancels it, they get their money back and spend it on another flight, she said.

Trump has extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran but the war could go on for some time without a full resolution.

Linus Benjamin Bauer of Dubai-based BAA & Partners said the nature of risk for airlines had changed in recent years.

“Today’s conflicts are more fragmented, less predictable and increasingly shaped by asymmetric threats – from drones and portable air defence systems to electronic interference,” he said.

That means airspace can “remain legally open while being operationally unsafe”.

The information airlines have “remains incomplete, fragmented and often delayed”.

Crucially, Bauer writes, “decision-making has shifted from regulators to airlines themselves”.

The proliferation of drones and GPS jamming and spoofing adds to the haze of uncertainty facing airline operations and flight crew.

Other factors arising from war come into play for travel, too. The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade is warning travellers about the potential for fuel shocks linked to Iranian attacks on oil infrastructure in the Gulf to affect trips.

“There are global fuel supply challenges, with many countries introducing fuel restrictions and local measures to preserve fuel supplies,” DFAT’s Smartraveller website says. “If you travel overseas, your plans may be impacted.”

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