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Tokyo has scrapped a decades-old ban on exporting lethal weapons, aiming to bolster allies as security tensions with China and North Korea intensify.

Japan's decision to abolish its long-held ban on lethal weapons sales overseas has been welcomed by allies and condemned by regional rivals. 

However, the policy change is likely to have lasting implications for the geopolitical rivalries that are destabilizing the western Pacific. Some fear the move could push the region to the brink of armed clashes.

The government confirmed last week that Japanese companies will from now on be free to sell advanced military equipment to 17 countries with which it has defense agreements, reversing a policy that dates back to 1967.

The administration of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is framing the decision as a way of ensuring the nation's own security by helping partner states.

"There are growing expectations for Japan's defense equipment," Takaichi told reporters in Tokyo. "Equipment transfers that meet the needs of like-minded nations will contribute to enhancing their defense capabilities."

There are multiple reasons behind the decision, say analysts, but all come back to Japan's need to do more to guarantee its own security.

"Given the severe security environment surrounding Japan — primarily the challenges posed by China and North Korea — Japan needs to help to guarantee the balance of power in this part of the world," said Masayuki Masuda, director of Chinese studies at the National Institute of Defense Studies in Tokyo.

"One way of doing that is through providing the best weapons systems available to our partners, such as the Philippines and Australia," he told DW.

Manila and Canberra are the earliest allies to benefit from Japan's shift, with the announcement sealing major deals that have been planned for some months.

Japan has signed a $6.5 billion agreement with Australia to deliver 11 enhanced versions of its Mogami class of frigates, which are already in service with Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF). The first three warships will be built in Japan and delivered by 2030, with the remainder being built in Australian shipyards.

Indonesia is reported to be eager to acquire Oyashio-class submarines and the Philippines is eyeing Abukuma-class destroyer escort vessels being phased out in Japan, which would significantly bolster the Philippine navy's capabilities as it faces Chinese maritime forces that have seized atolls and reefs in the South China Sea that Manila claims as its sovereign territory.

Japan is also working with the UK and Italy on a sixth-generation stealth fighter jet under the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) and is developing a Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) with the United States to combat hypersonic missiles.

"This decision has come about primarily because Japan is more and more concerned about the security challenges that we face," Masuda said. "The Chinese navy has expanded its operations into the mid-Pacific and a critical component of Japan's national security strategy has to be a deterrent.

"We also see the challenge from North Korea evolving as the regime there tests new intercontinental ballistic missiles with greater ranges and payloads, threatening escalation in a new direction," he told DW.

"Japan is trying hard to use diplomacy to create a stable environment in the region, but that has to be backed up by a deterrent capability."

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Margarita Estevez-Abe, an expert on Japan at Syracuse University's Maxwell School, said Takaichi's decision has been driven by a number of factors, including a couple that may be even more critical than self-defense.

The "political desire" to export Japanese weapons predates Takaichi, going back to her mentor, Shinzo Abe, who eased the strict 1967 ban on defense exports in 2014 to permit the sale of non-lethal equipment, such as for surveillance, transport, rescue and minesweeping, while lethal weapons remained prohibited at the time.

"The timing of Takaichi's decision is driven by two factors," said Estevez-Abe. "First, the US has been pressuring all its allies to spend more on defense. Rather than channeling that additional spending into purchasing American weapons, Takaichi wants to use it as industrial policy. And Japan cannot build a viable defense industry without export markets."

"Second, Takaichi wants to revise the Constitution to remove Article 9, the so-called 'Peace Clause'," she added. "The more volatile the world becomes, the easier it will be for her to justify that revision. Her decision to break from the status quo is part of that broader agenda."

Allies have welcomed Tokyo's decision, with the US Ambassador to Japan George Glass on X calling it a "historic step" that will help enhance the defense capabilities between the allies.

France welcomed Japan's decision, which a Foreign Ministry spokesperson told reporters "will contribute to the safety of people and the maintenance of sovereignty in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region."

Other nations have expressed firm opposition, with a Chinese Foreign Ministry official saying, "Japan's recent dangerous moves in the military and security fields defy its self-proclaimed 'dedication to peace' and adherence to the 'exclusively defense-oriented' policy."

Estevez-Abe dismisses that claim: "This is the same charge that Beijing has repeatedly leveled at hawkish LDP prime ministers," she said, adding that Tokyo's policy shift will cement existing ties and help Japan to forge new alliances, as concerns grow over Washington's commitment to its partners.

"The US has triggered this dynamic," she said. US President Donald Trump, "has alienated so many American allies that, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney puts it, 'middle powers' are actively working to reduce their dependence on Washington."

"Relying less on American weapons is very much part of that conversation," Estevez-Abe concluded. 

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Edited by: Keith Walker