트럼프, 이란 붕괴 주장하며 테헤란은 호르무즈 해협 대치 속 영향력 강화 추구

Donald Trump TOI correspondent from Washington: US President Donald Trump on Tuesday claimed that Iran is “in a state of collapse” and is urgently pleading with Washington to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, projecting an image of a weakened adversary desperately seeking relief. But developments on the ground suggest a far more complex reality: a hardened maritime standoff in which Tehran is simultaneously demanding that the US lift its naval blockade even as it maintains its own chokehold over the critical waterway. The impasse is now stressing out economies across the world, including in the United States itself.Trump’s assertion in a social media post that Iran wants the strait opened “as soon as possible” comes amid indirect contacts between the two sides over de-escalation. Yet analysts tracking the crisis say the facts point not to unilateral Iranian capitulation but to a mutual coercion strategy. The US President has previously made claims that have not been true -- such as asserting Iran has agreed to hand over all its "nuclear dust" (enriched uranium). He has also repeatedly suggested that the Iranian leadership is divided even though Teheran has been speaking from the same page.The divergence between Trump’s rhetoric and the operational reality also underscores the information war surrounding the conflict. While Washington emphasizes Iranian economic distress – Trump claims the blockade is costing Tehran $ 500 million a day -- Tehran has framed the crisis as resistance against “piracy,” accusing the US of unlawfully seizing tankers and weaponizing maritime trade. In effect, both sides are blockading each other, turning the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global oil normally flows, into the epicenter of the most severe energy disruption in decades.Far from signaling surrender, Iran on Monday proposed reopening the strait under conditions favorable to itself: lifting sanctions and deferring contentious issues such as its nuclear program. But Trump reportedly rejected a framework that would reopen shipping lanes while “setting aside” nuclear questions, insisting that Iran must address its weapons ambitions as part of any broader deal. The result is a diplomatic deadlock layered atop an active military and economic confrontation.The standoff is reverberating far beyond the Gulf, with oil prices surging above $110 a barrel amid fears of prolonged disruption, and analysts warning of sustained volatility even under optimistic diplomatic scenarios. For Asia—particularly energy-dependent economies like India, Japan, and South Korea—the crisis has tightened supplies and driven up import costs. Europe, already grappling with energy insecurity, faces renewed inflationary pressure. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has described the situation as one of the most severe supply disruptions in modern history.The US, long cushioned by domestic production, is no longer insulated. Rising global crude prices are feeding into higher gasoline costs at home, with retail fuel prices climbing to fresh highs in recent days, according to market trackers. The political implications are significant for a White House that has made energy affordability a central economic message amid a gloomy outlook in the mid-term elections for the Republican Party.Compounding the turbulence, the United Arab Emirates announced Tuesday that it will leave the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), a decision that could reshape the global oil order. The move reflects both economic calculation and geopolitical signaling. The UAE has grown increasingly frustrated with production quotas imposed by the cartel—dominated by Saudi Arabia—and is seeking to ramp up output independently to capitalize on high prices.For Trump, the UAE’s departure is being framed as a strategic win. He has long criticized OPEC for artificially inflating prices, and a weakened cartel could, in theory, dilute its pricing power. But in the short term, the immediate impact is more ambiguity than relief, as supply disruptions linked to the Iran crisis overshadow any incremental production gains.The current standoff represents a paradox: both sides professing interest in reopening one of the world’s most vital trade arteries, yet neither willing to concede the terms necessary to do so. Trump’s claim that Iran is pleading for relief captures only part of the picture. Tehran is indeed seeking economic breathing space—but on conditions that would preserve its strategic leverage. Until that gap is bridged, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain less a conduit for global commerce than a pressure point in a high-stakes geopolitical contest—one whose consequences are now being felt from Indian restaurants to American gas stations.