멕시코의 셰인바움: 미국에 거역할 것인가 아니면 동맹을 체포할 것인가

The Trump administration wants President Claudia Sheinbaum to arrest a Mexican governor. She is faced with few good options in response.

President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico has just been handed a political grenade.

U.S. prosecutors on Wednesday unsealed an indictment against one of the most prominent politicians in her party — Rubén Rocha Moya, the governor of the Mexican state of Sinaloa — with charges that said he had long aided a powerful drug cartel that has terrorized the very constituents he swore to protect.

The United States asked Ms. Sheinbaum’s government to quickly arrest him and nine other current and former Mexican officials named in the indictment.

That has left Ms. Sheinbaum with a short window for a big decision.

She could arrest one of her party allies and extradite him to the United States, a move that would most likely strengthen her bond with President Trump but also anger politicians in her party who argue that the Trump administration has been pushing Ms. Sheinbaum around.

Or she could defy the U.S. request and protect Mr. Rocha, potentially strengthening her position within her party but fracturing her relationship with the United States.

“You’re at a political moment where, if you hand over Rocha Moya, you take on all the national political fallout that decision entails,” said Lisa María Sánchez, a Mexican security analyst. “Or you protect him, and then you keep feeding the narrative that the Mexican government does, indeed, shield political-criminal ties.”

Manhattan prosecutors accuse Mr. Rocha and other officials of a yearslong scheme to protect the Sinaloa cartel — their state’s dominant criminal organization and the principal supplier of fentanyl to the United States — in exchange for bribes and help getting elected.

Mr. Rocha framed the accusations as a U.S. plot to attack Morena, the leftist political party to which both he and Ms. Sheinbaum belong. “It is part of a perverse strategy to violate the constitutional order, specifically the national sovereignty” of Mexico, he said in a statement.

On Thursday, Ms. Sheinbaum spoke for the first time publicly since the indictment was unsealed — and immediately made clear she was prepared to stand up to the United States.

“We are not going to cover for anyone who has committed a crime,” she said in a statement that opened her daily news conference. “However, if there is no clear evidence, it is obvious that the goal of these charges by the Justice Department is political. Let me be absolutely clear: Under no circumstances will we allow a foreign government to interfere or meddle in decisions that belong exclusively to the Mexican people.”

She added that the United States had not provided enough evidence to support arresting the accused officials and that the Mexican attorney general’s office would open its own investigation. The Mexican authorities would arrest Mr. Rocha only if they conclude independently that he had committed a crime, she said, or if they receive “overwhelming and irrefutable evidence” from the United States.

At one point, she showed a section of the indictment that included an image of a handwritten document that prosecutors said was a list of bribes to Mexican officials. “This is the only document they cite as evidence in this filing,” she said, reading a line that listed 30,000 pesos next to a name, Juanito, the nickname of one of the accused officials. “I mean, at the very least it’s striking. It’s just a piece of paper.”

She noted that the 34-page indictment against Mr. Rocha and other officials, which include a sitting senator and mayor, also told a narrative of years of alleged corruption by the officials, but she said it was based on testimony from witnesses “whose identities we don’t know.”

The political crisis arrives at a bad time for Ms. Sheinbaum.

On Thursday, government data showed that in the first quarter, the Mexican economy posted its largest decline in more than a year. And opinion surveys have steadily shown a decline in her approval ratings, although she remains one of Latin America’s most popular leaders.

With few good political options in the Rocha case, Ms. Sheinbaum appears to be buying herself some time. She has not fully backed Mr. Rocha, but also has not immediately acquiesced to the Trump administration, instead saying Mexican investigators must determine the next step for themselves.

But legal experts said that Ms. Sheinbaum’s demand for more evidence to arrest Mr. Rocha was not immediately necessary under the extradition treaty between the United States and Mexico.

The United States requested a so-called provisional arrest of Mr. Rocha and the other accused officials, a measure used in cases when a nation fears that suspects may flee. In such cases under the treaty, if either nation receives a valid arrest warrant from the other, it “shall take the necessary steps to secure the arrest.” The nation requesting the arrest would then have 60 days to provide its evidence.

But Mr. Rocha also has another layer of protection: Mexico’s Congress would have to remove the criminal immunity he has as an elected official. There is also some legal precedent that suggests the state Congress in Sinaloa would also have to remove Mr. Rocha’s immunity in order for him to be arrested. Both legislatures are controlled by Morena.

Federal senators from Morena met on Wednesday to discuss the indictment, which also targeted their colleague, another Morena senator named Enrique Inzunza Cázares, who has denied the accusations, according to two people present who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private talks. They were not in agreement, with some senators wanting to back their embattled allies and others wanting to distance the party from any potential ties to cartels, the people said.

The debate over whether to strip Mr. Rocha of his immunity began informally on the Senate floor just hours after the indictment was unsealed. “You all are going to decide, and there will be only two possibilities: impunity or justice. We will vote for justice,” Ricardo Anaya, a lead opposition senator, said on the Senate floor. “May history judge you by the direction of your vote.”

Manuel Huerta, a Morena senator, responded that the government should not rush to arrest the accused officials. “We don’t cover for criminals here,” he said. “This investigation is simply being processed according to the law.”

Ms. Sheinbaum’s dilemma is partly the fruit of a yearslong strategy led by her predecessor, former President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, to build a broad populist coalition called Morena that pulled in politicians from across the political spectrum.

The strategy has been an enormous success. In just a few years, the young party has crushed its opposition, secured two consecutive presidencies, taken control of Congress and many state governments, and even installed loyalists in judgeships across the nation. But the leftist movement — whose policies to lift up the poor, root out corruption and champion the working class resonated with millions of Mexicans — has also been caught in corruption scandals involving some of its most prominent members.

Several officials have been accused of possible ties to criminal organizations. Others have faced controversy involving their luxurious lifestyles. And, now, Mr. Rocha and others are under U.S. indictment.

Analysts say that was inevitable given the Morena strategy to embrace such a wide array of politicians and the Mexican drug cartels’ long tentacles into governments across the nation. Now it has caught up to Ms. Sheinbaum, who has to both lead Morena and — under intense pressure from the Trump administration — investigate some of its biggest names.

“This is no longer the United States helping Mexico fight drug trafficking. It is the U.S. saying your political party is part of the problem we are supposed to be fighting together,” said Carlos Bravo Regidor, a Mexican political analyst in Mexico. “The question now is what the Mexican government will do next.”

On Thursday, Ms. Sheinbaum said she had not spoken with the U.S. ambassador to Mexico since the indictment was unsealed — but she had spoken with Mr. Rocha. “I told him what I’m saying here,” she said. “If there’s nothing there, then there’s nothing to fear.”

Paulina Villegas, Miriam Castillo and Cyntia Barrera Díaz contributed reporting.

Jack Nicas is The Times’s Mexico City bureau chief, leading coverage of Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.

Emiliano Rodríguez Mega is a reporter and researcher for The Times based in Mexico City, covering Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean.