버지니아 재분할 선거에서 주목할 주요 지역

Suburbs to the north and large cities to the south could offer insight into how support for the amendment to the state constitution is unfolding.

Though Virginia has consistently gone toward Democrats in recent presidential elections, it has been a swing state in off-year contests, electing Gov. Abigail Spanberger, a Democrat, by 15 percentage points in 2025 after elevating a Republican to the office just four years prior. And polling ahead of Tuesday’s vote showed somewhat mixed results for a redistricting amendment to the state’s constitution that is being pushed by Democrats.

Results should start to flow in shortly. But analyzing the early returns will be difficult for two reasons: First, Virginia’s diversity and distinct geographic regions mean the first counties to report might not be representative of the full state, and second, a large share of the vote was cast during the state’s early voting period.

Some counties report the early and mail-in ballots first, which could make the initial “yes” tally appear stronger than it winds up, because Democrats participate more in early voting. Other counties report the votes cast on Election Day first, which could make the initial “no” tally appear stronger because that style of voting is more common among Republicans. That is why returns in any county can be misleading until they are complete.

Once a county has reported results across all methods, you will be able to see that county’s shift from prior elections on our results page.

Here are some areas to watch:

Greater Northern Virginia, which includes the suburbs of Washington, D.C., as well as the outer ring suburbs and exurbs, has accounted for about a third of the total vote in recent elections.

Loudoun and Prince William counties exemplify the suburban swings in the state’s recent elections. In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris fared substantially worse in these counties than Joseph R. Biden Jr. did in 2020. Places with more Hispanic and Asian voters had the biggest rightward shifts. In the 2025 governor’s race, those counties shifted back to the left and Ms. Spanberger roughly doubled Ms. Harris’s margins in those areas.

Fairfax County, the most populous county in the state, is a stronghold of Democratic support. But in 2025, Jay Jones, the Democratic candidate for state attorney general who was under fire over violent texts about a political rival, significantly underperformed Ms. Spanberger in Fairfax. Results here could indicate how well “yes” is doing with those whose support for Ms. Spanberger might not translate to other Democratic priorities.

Central Virginia includes the state’s capital, Richmond, and high-turnout suburbs like Chesterfield, as well as smaller cities like Charlottesville and more rural areas.

Chesterfield County, which is outside of Richmond, is the fourth most populous county in the state. In 2024 and 2025, the first vote report from Chesterfield consisted of ballots cast on Election Day. If “yes” is performing well among those ballots, which tend to skew Republican, that would be a good sign the measure will pass.

Henrico and Hanover counties, like Fairfax, saw a large gap between Mr. Jones’s performance in the attorney general race and Ms. Spanberger’s in the governor’s race. If Spanberger voters are hesitant to vote for the proposed map, that sentiment could show up in the results here.

Hampton Roads, a major naval hub on the state’s southeast coast, is a key area for the “no” campaign.

Virginia Beach is the largest city in the state. Traditionally Republican, it flipped blue in 2020, then back to red in 2021, when Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, won it in his successful bid for governor. Ms. Harris won the city narrowly in 2024, and Ms. Spanberger expanded the Democratic margin in 2025.

Virginia Beach turnout could be driven by the fact that voters there would be heavily affected by the redrawn map, with the area changing from a swing district that leans Republican to one where Democrats have the advantage.

Chesapeake, the state’s second largest city, would also be heavily affected by the proposed map: Many of the Republican-leaning areas would be packed into a safely Democratic district, and the remainder of the city would become part of the same Democratic-leaning district as Virginia Beach.

Christine Zhang is a Times reporter specializing in graphics and data journalism.

Alex Lemonides is a data journalist at The Times, working on a team that analyzes election results and conducts political polls.