트럼프 행정부가 어떻게 이란 지도부에 재집결할 안전한 장소를 제공했는가

Iran’s officials are likely to be better prepared for the next round of US negotiations thanks to a golden opportunity in Islamabad.

When the plane carrying Iran’s delegation touched down in Islamabad for peace talks, even US officials were surprised at how many people stepped onto the tarmac.

Sixty-nine men and two women, dressed uniformly in black suits, disembarked from the chartered Meraj Airlines jet and made their way to the five-star Serena Hotel.

There was Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Iranian parliament Speaker, Abbas Araghchi, the foreign minister, Abdolnaser Hemmati, the central bank governor, Ali Akbar Ahmadian, the defence council secretary, as well as a host of senior diplomats, Revolutionary Guards advisers and journalists.

It was a meeting to try and bring an end to more than a month of conflict, the highest-level direct engagement between the two countries since Iranian revolutionaries stormed the US embassy in Tehran in 1979.

It looked like diplomatic excess, but the size of the group served a second, unspoken purpose for Iran. In holding the talks, the US inadvertently gave Iran something it has not had since February 28 – a safe place for its leaders to meet each other.

“They were looking for an opportunity for 40 days to meet up without worry, co-ordinate things, and discuss what to do with the country and future plans,” an Iranian official with knowledge of the delegation’s planning told the London Telegraph.

“This trip to Pakistan helped a lot in managing affairs. Iran went there with the intention of peace, but the Americans unintentionally helped Iran co-ordinate in case war breaks out again.”

Whether peace talks succeeded mattered less than the co-ordination they enabled.

“This trip has had a positive impact on managing the country,” the official said. Referring to Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader, they added: “They may have even exchanged messages from the leader.”

The 56-year-old has not appeared publicly since his selection after his father was killed, and he himself was injured by a US-Israeli airstrike. Speculation about his condition is as widespread inside Iran as it is outside.

“Within the system, the main topic these days is where the new leader is and whether he is even alive,” the official said.

“Ghalibaf has assured everyone that everything is OK. Everyone wants and is trying to bring the country back to normal so they can hold a funeral for the late leader [Ali Khamenei].

“The situation has made things and running the country difficult, but everyone trusts Ghalibaf.”

The war and the talks have exposed a fundamental vulnerability in Iran’s theocratic system that Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini never anticipated when he designed it in 1979 – that the entire governance structure depends on physical proximity.

The supreme leader issues directives to the Guardian Council, which vets legislation from parliament, which co-ordinates with the IRGC commanders, who report back through the Supreme National Security Council.

Every critical decision requires face-to-face consultation between clerics, generals and bureaucrats who must physically convene to argue Islamic jurisprudence, debate military strategy and navigate factional rivalries that cannot be resolved through intermediaries.

Six weeks of US-Israeli strikes targeting command centres and leadership facilities have paralysed normal governance.

Senior officials could not safely convene in Tehran, Isfahan or Qom without fear of being hit by an airstrike – as so many of their colleagues had been.

Analysts are split on whether the delegation and its composition projects unity or division.

In theory, Araghchi should lead diplomatic missions. He is Iran’s most experienced nuclear negotiator, was in the talks that produced the 2015 agreement, knows American officials, understands Washington’s bureaucracy and speaks their diplomatic language.

By any rational measure, he is the obvious choice, but rational measures don’t apply when a regime that has built nearly half a century of legitimacy on “Death to America” now needs to accept US terms.

Ghalibaf, a former Revolutionary Guards commander, took charge instead – a signal that the IRGC maintains ultimate control even as diplomats handle negotiations.

He is close to Khamenei, who has protected him through multiple corruption scandals that should have ended his career. He answers to Khamenei and the Guards, not Massoud Pezeshkian, the president, who did not even make the trip.

Ahmadian’s presence as defence council secretary underscored military priorities. Hemmati’s inclusion acknowledged that the economic crisis required immediate attention.

Ali Bigdeli, an Iranian analyst in Tehran, criticised the composition of the delegation, saying: “The make-up of the negotiating team lacked the unity and experience necessary for such sensitive negotiations. This issue, along with other factors, affected the negotiating process.”

He argued that the talks suffered from “rushing in without laying necessary groundwork and without conducting confidential diplomacy before entering negotiations at this level of complexity”.

Omid Memarian, a senior fellow and Iran expert at Dawn Institute, told The New York Times: “The most important message Iran is sending with the composition of its delegation is that there is internal consensus for negotiations and a deal at the highest levels of the regime.”

As it was, the talks lasted 21 hours before JD Vance, the US vice-president, walked out, declaring Iranian positions on nuclear enrichment and the Strait of Hormuz unacceptable.

Araghchi later said the sides had been “just inches away” from an “Islamabad memorandum of understanding” before encountering US “maximalism.”

Ghalibaf was more frank, saying Washington had failed to earn Tehran’s trust. That sentiment still stands.

The feeling inside Iran is that US intelligence almost certainly tracked arrivals, catalogued attendees, and monitored movements throughout the visit and their return in Tehran – providing targeting lists if talks definitively fail.

Both sides have signalled willingness to resume negotiations. Fresh talks could reportedly restart “later this week”, although Pakistani officials said no date had been set.

Iran’s leadership once again goes into hiding. This time, it is not completely blind.

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