미국 출산율 사상 최저 수준으로 또 하락
U.S. Fertility Rates Drop to Another Record Low
The New York Times
Sabrina Tavernise
EN
2026-04-09 04:01
Translated
2007년 이후 지속적으로 하락 추세를 보이고 있는 출산율은 특히 십대 청소년층의 급감이 주요 원인인 것으로 나타났다.
The U.S. fertility rate fell slightly in 2025, to another record low, extending two decades of declines, according to federal data released on Thursday.
The fertility rate — the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age — dropped to 53.1, from 53.8 in 2024, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
The number of births dropped too, falling by 1 percent from the previous year, to 3,606,400.
The fertility rate has been falling since 2007, a trend that has become something of a demographic mystery. The drop began during the Great Recession, and experts first attributed it to the sharp economic downturn, following a common historical pattern. But the rate has continued to drop, and demographers have been trying to understand why.
There are some clues in the age breakdown: The fertility rate for teenagers dropped by 7 percent from 2024’s figure, setting another record low for the group. Since 2007, the rate for teenagers is down by 72 percent, and since 1991, when teenage fertility rates were at a high, the rate is down by 81 percent.
Some demographers say the precipitous drop of births among teenagers and women in their early 20s shows that women have more control over their fertility. Women are still having children, but they are just having them later, the demographers say.
The numbers released on Thursday were consistent with that idea, showing a rise in the fertility rate among women in their 30s and 40s. The fertility rate for women from 30 to 34 rose by 3 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, the data show.
Martha Bailey, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said that while the decline in the rate may look significant, it could reverse course. In the 1970s, the fertility rate had also dipped sharply, to below replacement levels.
But by the time that cohort of women had reached their mid-40s, they had an average of 1.9 children, and the subsequent cohorts had an average of two.
“They weren’t opting out of motherhood, they were delaying it,” she said.
It is not yet clear if the youngest cohort — Gen Z women — will eventually have children and make up for the delay, she said, but the example of the 1970s shows that they might.
Other demographers say that making up for such a substantial and long-lasting delay will be difficult. For the first time, almost half of the country’s 30-year-old women are childless. In 1976, it was just 18 percent.
A country’s population — and demographic health — is measured through births, deaths and immigration rates. In the United States, the population is still growing, but slowly, dragged down by a precipitous drop in immigration, and the lower fertility rate. Some European countries have tipped into outright decline.
Demographic health is a delicate balance: A shrinking population can threaten social safety nets, as there are not enough workers and taxpayers to support aging populations. But a population growing too quickly can strain society too.
Sabrina Tavernise is a writer-at-large for The Times, focused on political life in America and how Americans see the changes in Washington.
The fertility rate — the number of births per 1,000 women of childbearing age — dropped to 53.1, from 53.8 in 2024, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
The number of births dropped too, falling by 1 percent from the previous year, to 3,606,400.
The fertility rate has been falling since 2007, a trend that has become something of a demographic mystery. The drop began during the Great Recession, and experts first attributed it to the sharp economic downturn, following a common historical pattern. But the rate has continued to drop, and demographers have been trying to understand why.
There are some clues in the age breakdown: The fertility rate for teenagers dropped by 7 percent from 2024’s figure, setting another record low for the group. Since 2007, the rate for teenagers is down by 72 percent, and since 1991, when teenage fertility rates were at a high, the rate is down by 81 percent.
Some demographers say the precipitous drop of births among teenagers and women in their early 20s shows that women have more control over their fertility. Women are still having children, but they are just having them later, the demographers say.
The numbers released on Thursday were consistent with that idea, showing a rise in the fertility rate among women in their 30s and 40s. The fertility rate for women from 30 to 34 rose by 3 percent in 2025 compared with the previous year, the data show.
Martha Bailey, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles, said that while the decline in the rate may look significant, it could reverse course. In the 1970s, the fertility rate had also dipped sharply, to below replacement levels.
But by the time that cohort of women had reached their mid-40s, they had an average of 1.9 children, and the subsequent cohorts had an average of two.
“They weren’t opting out of motherhood, they were delaying it,” she said.
It is not yet clear if the youngest cohort — Gen Z women — will eventually have children and make up for the delay, she said, but the example of the 1970s shows that they might.
Other demographers say that making up for such a substantial and long-lasting delay will be difficult. For the first time, almost half of the country’s 30-year-old women are childless. In 1976, it was just 18 percent.
A country’s population — and demographic health — is measured through births, deaths and immigration rates. In the United States, the population is still growing, but slowly, dragged down by a precipitous drop in immigration, and the lower fertility rate. Some European countries have tipped into outright decline.
Demographic health is a delicate balance: A shrinking population can threaten social safety nets, as there are not enough workers and taxpayers to support aging populations. But a population growing too quickly can strain society too.
Sabrina Tavernise is a writer-at-large for The Times, focused on political life in America and how Americans see the changes in Washington.