시장, 한 해 혼란 속에서도 놀라운 성과 거두다
Markets Have Faced a Year of Chaos and Still Done Awfully Well
The New York Times
Jeff Sommer
EN
2026-04-09 09:02
Translated
이란 전쟁 기간 대부분의 주식 투자자들이 손실을 입었지만, '해방의 날' 관세 발표 이후 올해 수익률은 화려했다.
The markets have been rocky. But the remarkable thing is how good returns for most investors have been over the past 12 months — even including the downturn that started when the United States and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.
They show that for the average domestic stock mutual fund or exchange traded fund, the losses have been relatively small — a decline for the first quarter of the year of 1.2 percent. That’s according to final investor returns that have arrived from Morningstar, the financial services company.
The actual, up-to-the-last-minute returns for many investors improved on Wednesday, when the stock market surged and oil prices dropped with the start of a fragile cease-fire in the Iran war. At the market close, the S&P 500 was down less than 1 percent since the start of the year.
The Morningstar data shows that even with the setback of the war, the average domestic U.S. stock fund gained 16.8 percent over the 12 months through March. And over five years — a stretch that includes the dismal runaway inflation of 2022 — the average domestic stock fund returned 8 percent annualized.
This record of resilience adds weight to a compelling — but far from foolproof — argument that investors are best off sticking with the stock market, even when they are troubled by the state of the nation and the world.
That narrative goes like this: Since World War II, the U.S. stock market has bounced back regularly from seemingly irretrievably destructive developments like wars, pandemics, domestic unrest, recession, inflation and flawed economic policies. Corporate earnings have provided the glue holding investor returns together — and most forecasts for corporate earnings remain strong, as they have been for the last few years.
But beware. There’s no guarantee that the relative equanimity in the markets will persist, if the fighting resumes and if oil supplies remain constrained. Most corporate earnings forecasts have not changed since the start of the war, yet global economic conditions are shifting rapidly, adding costs and increasing the risk that profits won’t grow as rapidly, and may even fall.
Furthermore, the historical record shows that recessions, or runaway inflation, can shatter positive investor returns with little warning. Even when economic conditions seem solid, the markets can plummet at a moment’s notice.
I’d add that whatever you may think of President Trump’s policies, his behavior is shattering basic humane norms. On Tuesday morning, he threatened Iran with total destruction. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” the president wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
In a wry response on LinkedIn, Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group, an independent geopolitical risk consulting firm, said, “It looks bad for the U.S. president to threaten genocide.” Indeed it does.
The United States and its ally Israel did not destroy all of Iranian civilization on Tuesday night. But the situation remains tenuous despite the cease-fire, with Iran retaining the ability to throttle the critical Strait of Hormuz and send out missile strikes of its own, and Israel continuing to attack southern Lebanon.
Even if the Iran war ends soon, the U.S. threats and the Iranian response have already changed the world, in my estimation. The risk of instability has risen substantially.
Investing, under these circumstances, is hazardous. For those who may need to use their money soon — by which I’d include any period of less than five years — the stock market’s wild swings may be too much to endure.
Bonds are probably safer, though they can lose money, too, if sold during periods of rising interest rates. Safe, interest-bearing accounts and Treasury bills are the best bets for those who want to get their hands on their cash quickly, or really can’t afford to lose any of it.
Consider two of the biggest obstacles that investors have faced. In April 2025, Mr. Trump imposed the steepest tariffs since the 1930s, and the markets shuddered. While he has adjusted many of them after the Supreme Court ruled that he had exceeded his authority in unilaterally imposing tariffs, his administration is still intent on revamping the entire world trade system.
Then, last month, the war with Iran resulted in the worst interruption in global oil supplies in decades, setting off steep price increases in oil and gasoline, and, perhaps, the resumption of a disconcertingly high rate of inflation.
The combination of the tariffs and the oil shock might have been enough to derail the economy and the markets. But what’s astonishing, in retrospect, is how well investor returns held up.
Morningstar has been providing quarterly mutual fund and exchange-traded fund returns to The New York Times for decades. These funds — as well as the workplace-based retirement plan trusts based on them — are how most people in the United States invest. They provide a window on how the stock and bond markets have affected real people. And they suggest that despite all the headlines, most investors have been insulated financially, so far.
The fund returns, for the three months, one year and five years through March 30, included these highlights:
International stock funds did better than U.S. domestic ones, both over the quarter and the 12 months through March.
The comparisons were a gain of 0.8 percent for international stock funds over the quarter versus a 1.2 percent loss for domestic funds, and a 26 percent gain for international funds over 12 months versus a 16.8 percent rise for domestic funds.
Over five years, however, domestic stock funds beat international funds, with an annualized return of 8 percent versus 6.1 percent for international funds. Latin America stock funds were standouts, with an average return of 12.2 percent over three months, 49.5 percent over 12 months and 10.4 percent, annualized, over five years.
Domestic bond funds beat domestic stock funds for the quarter, though domestic taxable funds still lost 0.2 percent over three months, while municipal bond funds were flat. Over 12 months, taxable bond funds gained 5.4 percent while municipal bond funds, which are typically exempt from at least some income taxes, returned 3.8 percent, on average.
Over five years, domestic taxable funds returned 2.2 percent. Municipal bond funds returned 0.9 percent. Bond funds, in short, did a bit better than stock funds during the stock market decline this year, but stocks beat bonds over longer periods, as they often do.
Within the U.S. stock market, energy funds benefited from soaring oil and natural gas prices, with an average gain of 34.5 percent for the quarter and of 44.6 percent over 12 months. Over five years, their annualized return was 23.3 percent.
Precious metal funds, which included those investing in gold and silver producers, returned 7.3 percent for the quarter. But over 12 months, they gained 23.8 percent, and over five years, their annualized return was 104 percent.
Target-date retirement funds generally had small losses for the quarter but solid returns over longer periods. For example, the average 2030 fund — aimed at those who plan to retire in that year — declined 0.85 percent for the quarter, but posted a gain of 12.8 percent over 12 months and 5.4 percent annualized over five years.
Retirement income funds, which typically contain a high bond allocation and a modest exposure to stocks and are often used by retirees, lost 0.4 percent in the quarter, but gained 9.1 percent over 12 months and 3.6 percent over five years, annualized.
Holding low-cost index funds that merely track the markets, and staying with them for decades, has been a successful strategy. I’m sticking with it. But it’s not without its perils now.
The war, the on-again-off-again tariffs, the Trump administration’s disregard for traditions and for many of the checks and balances in the U.S. government have changed the investing environment. Lighter regulation may help companies churn out profits; it may also cause serious harm. Risks abound.
There are dangers within the markets themselves. Artificial intelligence is a wild card. The technology has propelled market gains and led to the greatest stock market concentration in decades, as I’ve pointed out. Many market bulls expect A.I. to lead to heightened productivity throughout the economy, and to bigger profits for its leading practitioners. If this doesn’t happen, however, it may be difficult to sustain current market valuations.
Bullish strategists say that because earnings have increased while stock prices have not kept pace, the overall stock market, and the high-flying tech stocks, are more reasonably priced than they were six months ago.
Can investors count on the U.S. stock market to continue to outperform the others? I’ve got no crystal ball. The enduring strength of the U.S. economy and markets is a marvel. But the shifts underway in the world worry me.
So I’m hedging my bets, as I have for some time. Stocks and bonds from throughout the world in modest allocations, along with safe stashes of cash, help me sleep. Do what it takes to get you through the night.
Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.
They show that for the average domestic stock mutual fund or exchange traded fund, the losses have been relatively small — a decline for the first quarter of the year of 1.2 percent. That’s according to final investor returns that have arrived from Morningstar, the financial services company.
The actual, up-to-the-last-minute returns for many investors improved on Wednesday, when the stock market surged and oil prices dropped with the start of a fragile cease-fire in the Iran war. At the market close, the S&P 500 was down less than 1 percent since the start of the year.
The Morningstar data shows that even with the setback of the war, the average domestic U.S. stock fund gained 16.8 percent over the 12 months through March. And over five years — a stretch that includes the dismal runaway inflation of 2022 — the average domestic stock fund returned 8 percent annualized.
This record of resilience adds weight to a compelling — but far from foolproof — argument that investors are best off sticking with the stock market, even when they are troubled by the state of the nation and the world.
That narrative goes like this: Since World War II, the U.S. stock market has bounced back regularly from seemingly irretrievably destructive developments like wars, pandemics, domestic unrest, recession, inflation and flawed economic policies. Corporate earnings have provided the glue holding investor returns together — and most forecasts for corporate earnings remain strong, as they have been for the last few years.
But beware. There’s no guarantee that the relative equanimity in the markets will persist, if the fighting resumes and if oil supplies remain constrained. Most corporate earnings forecasts have not changed since the start of the war, yet global economic conditions are shifting rapidly, adding costs and increasing the risk that profits won’t grow as rapidly, and may even fall.
Furthermore, the historical record shows that recessions, or runaway inflation, can shatter positive investor returns with little warning. Even when economic conditions seem solid, the markets can plummet at a moment’s notice.
I’d add that whatever you may think of President Trump’s policies, his behavior is shattering basic humane norms. On Tuesday morning, he threatened Iran with total destruction. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again,” the president wrote on his social media platform, Truth Social. “I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will.”
In a wry response on LinkedIn, Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group, an independent geopolitical risk consulting firm, said, “It looks bad for the U.S. president to threaten genocide.” Indeed it does.
The United States and its ally Israel did not destroy all of Iranian civilization on Tuesday night. But the situation remains tenuous despite the cease-fire, with Iran retaining the ability to throttle the critical Strait of Hormuz and send out missile strikes of its own, and Israel continuing to attack southern Lebanon.
Even if the Iran war ends soon, the U.S. threats and the Iranian response have already changed the world, in my estimation. The risk of instability has risen substantially.
Investing, under these circumstances, is hazardous. For those who may need to use their money soon — by which I’d include any period of less than five years — the stock market’s wild swings may be too much to endure.
Bonds are probably safer, though they can lose money, too, if sold during periods of rising interest rates. Safe, interest-bearing accounts and Treasury bills are the best bets for those who want to get their hands on their cash quickly, or really can’t afford to lose any of it.
Consider two of the biggest obstacles that investors have faced. In April 2025, Mr. Trump imposed the steepest tariffs since the 1930s, and the markets shuddered. While he has adjusted many of them after the Supreme Court ruled that he had exceeded his authority in unilaterally imposing tariffs, his administration is still intent on revamping the entire world trade system.
Then, last month, the war with Iran resulted in the worst interruption in global oil supplies in decades, setting off steep price increases in oil and gasoline, and, perhaps, the resumption of a disconcertingly high rate of inflation.
The combination of the tariffs and the oil shock might have been enough to derail the economy and the markets. But what’s astonishing, in retrospect, is how well investor returns held up.
Morningstar has been providing quarterly mutual fund and exchange-traded fund returns to The New York Times for decades. These funds — as well as the workplace-based retirement plan trusts based on them — are how most people in the United States invest. They provide a window on how the stock and bond markets have affected real people. And they suggest that despite all the headlines, most investors have been insulated financially, so far.
The fund returns, for the three months, one year and five years through March 30, included these highlights:
International stock funds did better than U.S. domestic ones, both over the quarter and the 12 months through March.
The comparisons were a gain of 0.8 percent for international stock funds over the quarter versus a 1.2 percent loss for domestic funds, and a 26 percent gain for international funds over 12 months versus a 16.8 percent rise for domestic funds.
Over five years, however, domestic stock funds beat international funds, with an annualized return of 8 percent versus 6.1 percent for international funds. Latin America stock funds were standouts, with an average return of 12.2 percent over three months, 49.5 percent over 12 months and 10.4 percent, annualized, over five years.
Domestic bond funds beat domestic stock funds for the quarter, though domestic taxable funds still lost 0.2 percent over three months, while municipal bond funds were flat. Over 12 months, taxable bond funds gained 5.4 percent while municipal bond funds, which are typically exempt from at least some income taxes, returned 3.8 percent, on average.
Over five years, domestic taxable funds returned 2.2 percent. Municipal bond funds returned 0.9 percent. Bond funds, in short, did a bit better than stock funds during the stock market decline this year, but stocks beat bonds over longer periods, as they often do.
Within the U.S. stock market, energy funds benefited from soaring oil and natural gas prices, with an average gain of 34.5 percent for the quarter and of 44.6 percent over 12 months. Over five years, their annualized return was 23.3 percent.
Precious metal funds, which included those investing in gold and silver producers, returned 7.3 percent for the quarter. But over 12 months, they gained 23.8 percent, and over five years, their annualized return was 104 percent.
Target-date retirement funds generally had small losses for the quarter but solid returns over longer periods. For example, the average 2030 fund — aimed at those who plan to retire in that year — declined 0.85 percent for the quarter, but posted a gain of 12.8 percent over 12 months and 5.4 percent annualized over five years.
Retirement income funds, which typically contain a high bond allocation and a modest exposure to stocks and are often used by retirees, lost 0.4 percent in the quarter, but gained 9.1 percent over 12 months and 3.6 percent over five years, annualized.
Holding low-cost index funds that merely track the markets, and staying with them for decades, has been a successful strategy. I’m sticking with it. But it’s not without its perils now.
The war, the on-again-off-again tariffs, the Trump administration’s disregard for traditions and for many of the checks and balances in the U.S. government have changed the investing environment. Lighter regulation may help companies churn out profits; it may also cause serious harm. Risks abound.
There are dangers within the markets themselves. Artificial intelligence is a wild card. The technology has propelled market gains and led to the greatest stock market concentration in decades, as I’ve pointed out. Many market bulls expect A.I. to lead to heightened productivity throughout the economy, and to bigger profits for its leading practitioners. If this doesn’t happen, however, it may be difficult to sustain current market valuations.
Bullish strategists say that because earnings have increased while stock prices have not kept pace, the overall stock market, and the high-flying tech stocks, are more reasonably priced than they were six months ago.
Can investors count on the U.S. stock market to continue to outperform the others? I’ve got no crystal ball. The enduring strength of the U.S. economy and markets is a marvel. But the shifts underway in the world worry me.
So I’m hedging my bets, as I have for some time. Stocks and bonds from throughout the world in modest allocations, along with safe stashes of cash, help me sleep. Do what it takes to get you through the night.
Jeff Sommer writes Strategies, a weekly column on markets, finance and the economy.