이란이 호르무즈 해협의 기뢰 위치를 파악하지 못하고 있는가?

The New York Times reports, citing officials, that Iran may not have accurate records of the locations of all the mines it has laid. Reports suggest that the planting was carried out in a random and disorganised.

The New York Times, citing US officials, reported that Iran is finding it increasingly difficult to reopen the Strait of Hormuz due to its inability to locate all the naval mines it planted during the recent conflict, in addition to the possibility of some of them being swept away by sea currents.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is a direct result of the tensions that followed a series of US-Israeli military operations against strategic targets deep inside Iran, prompting Tehran to activate its "necessity option" to counter its adversaries air and naval superiority.

On 2 March, a senior IRGC official announced that the waterway was closed, warning that any ship entering it could be "targeted", according to Iranian state media. This statement alone disrupted global shipping markets, sent oil prices soaring, and increased uncertainty for shipping companies.

As the mines began to be deployed, the turmoil escalated. Tanker traffic through the Strait declined as shipowners reassessed the risks as a result of the potential presence of mines alongside the threat of Iranian drones and missiles. This overlap of risks gave Iran significant leverage during the conflict, enabling it to exert pressure on global energy flows and international actors.

However, this strategy later backfired on Tehran. The New York Times reported, citing officials, that Iran may not have accurate records of the locations of all the mines it has planted. Reports suggest that the planting was random and disorganised.

Iran has attempted to deal with the situation in part by keeping a narrow shipping lane open, allowing ships to pass despite the risks, and in some cases for a fee. The IRGC issued warnings about mined areas, and semi-official media outlets published maps showing routes believed to be safer, but these routes remained limited and maritime traffic did not return to normal.

US President Donald Trump linked the possibility of a temporary ceasefire to the "full, immediate and safe" reopening of the strait.

Iranian officials have indirectly acknowledged the difficulties, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi saying that the reopening of the strait will take place "taking into account technical constraints".

Sea mine clearance is one of the most complex military operations. The New York Times points to a paradox: even superpowers like the United States, which has state-of-the-art mine-hunting vessels, do not have a "surplus" of such resources to manage the clearance of a huge and turbulent waterway like the Strait of Hormuz in record time. If this is the case for the most technologically powerful military, the Iranian situation is even more critical.

Complications are compounded after recent US strikes destroyed Iranian naval infrastructure and a number of ships. However, Iran still possesses hundreds of small boats capable of laying additional mines or conducting harassment operations, which are difficult to track and were likely used during the first campaign.

As a result, neither Iran nor the US has a clear picture of how many mines remain or where they are deployed within the strait.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has warned Iran that it could face new strikes if talks in Pakistan as part of the temporary ceasefire fail.

The New York Post quoted Trump as saying: "We are currently loading ships with the best ammunition, the best weapons ever made."

"Unless we reach an agreement, we're going to use them. very effectively."