이란, 전쟁의 경제적 황폐화를 파악하고 이를 극복할 방법을 모색하다

The vast scale of destruction wrought by U.S. and Israeli bombardment will make sanctions relief all the more vital to Iran’s government as it tries to negotiate a peace agreement.

Pooria Asteraky, an engineer in Tehran, has watched his small software company fall apart in the five weeks that war has ravaged Iran. His staff stopped coming to work for fear of airstrikes. Clients canceled contracts and no new orders came in.

With banks being bombed and the internet shut down by the government, checks would not clear. Mr. Asteraky, 50, says he has not paid salaries since the war started, and has struggled to make rent. Facing the prospect of having to close down his company, he has spent hours explaining his plight to his employees. Sometimes they all cry.

“The economic impact of the war has been devastating; it’s hard to put into words. Every sector has been affected,” Mr. Asteraky said in a telephone interview from Tehran.

When Iranian officials meet with Vice President JD Vance and other Americans on Saturday to negotiate an end to the war, Iran’s economy will be high on their agenda. As part of a peace deal, Iran has demanded that the United States lift all sanctions against it. Iran will also ask for reparations for financial losses from the war, and the release of billions of dollars in blocked funds, officials have said.

Iran’s economy was in shambles long before bombs began to drop on Feb. 28. Sanctions imposed years ago by the United States, and more recently by the United Nations, depleted government resources and contributed to the collapse of the currency. An energy crisis brought widespread power cuts. Rampant mismanagement and corruption worsened inflation, which recently spiked to 50 percent.

The war, however, has delivered a staggering blow. Intense U.S. and Israeli bombardment has destroyed or damaged petrochemical plants, steel manufacturing plants, pharmaceutical factories, universities, schools, hospitals, banks, seaports, airports, parts of the power grid, bridges, railroads, shops, homes and more.

Iran is still assessing the cost of the calamity since the fragile cease-fire took hold on Tuesday, but early estimates are between $300 billion and $1 trillion, according to three Iranian officials who were not authorized to speak publicly, and two economists. Recovery will take years.

Economists said that attacks on Iran’s largest petrochemical complexes and steel plants, which according to Iranian media employed more than 200,000 people, were among the most damaging to the economy, with far-reaching consequences. The agricultural, manufacturing, textile and other industries that bought their products will have to import supplies instead, slowing production and driving up prices. Furloughed workers will provide less business to shopkeepers.

The three Iranian officials estimated that more than a million people have lost their jobs.

“The pathway for Iran’s economic development has been closed by this war,” said Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, the chief executive of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, a London-based think tank that tracks the Iranian economy. “The reality is that Iran is going to have a very difficult time rebuilding or reconstructing critical infrastructure if it remains under sanctions.”

He said the economic losses from the war would reinforce Iran’s resolve to demand sanctions relief in negotiations. Iran will need foreign investment and the ability to buy machinery from abroad if it is to recover and address public discontent that has led to waves of protests. None of that will be possible without a comprehensive deal with the United States that removes sanctions, Mr. Batmanghelidj said.

Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, had acknowledged in speeches before the war that the government faced a budget crisis. “We don’t have money, we don’t have it,” he said when struggling to explain how his administration could address a multitude of crises like inflation and acute shortages of energy and water.

For legions of ordinary Iranians, financial struggles have taken a critical turn. Many people who work in service jobs or are day laborers have not been paid since February. Shops and businesses, and the bazaars that are the pulse of the economy, have been shuttered. Iran’s flourishing e-commerce, particularly businesses reliant on social media platforms, has been all but wiped out.

“My friends, I’m in dire financial need and have put these four items up for sale. If anyone wants an urban/road bike or a car model, I’m at your service,” Nima Omrani, a web programmer, wrote in a social media post.

Sepehr, 19, a musician in Tehran who made a living by uploading music videos and songs to SoundCloud and social media, said in an interview that “this internet blackout has pushed all our future monthly incomes to essentially zero and we don’t know what’s going to happen.” Like many people interviewed, he asked that his surname be withheld for fear of retribution.

Amir, a resident of Rasht, is a partner in a factory that makes concrete blocks for construction projects, but those have stopped. “We have not had any sales since the war started; we are producing and putting it in storage but I’m not sure how long we can survive,” he said in an interview.

Afshin, 54, an owner of a spice business in Tehran, said in a text message, “We have to pay more for everything we need, and pay it in cash because banking is not functioning properly and this piles to our expenses.” Strikes on banking data centers had caused service outages at two of Iran’s largest banks, Sepah and Melli.

Jila Amiri lost her beauty salon in Heravi Square in northern Tehran to an Israeli airstrike. Israel’s military said it had targeted the offices of Al Araby, a Qatar-based television network, which occupied the same building as her salon. Videos and photographs show the building collapsed and nearby residential buildings severely damaged. Ms. Amiri had said on social media that when she opened her salon in 2024 it was the realization of her lifelong dream and 16 years of labor.

In another part of Tehran, a drone hit Honak music school. “Nothing is left of it; all the musical instruments are gone. My wife and I invested 15 years into building this school, brick by brick, and in one night it was all destroyed,” said the owner, Hamidreza Afarideh, in a video message published on BBC Persian.

Alireza Doroodian, the owner of an electronics factory, said that with sales at a standstill and production costs up, many factory owners have begun laying off workers.

“We posted two job openings last week, and every day we are receiving about 30 applications,” he said. “Before the war we would receive a few a day.”

“The economic fallout of the war is staggering,” he said, “but we hope our officials can negotiate sanctions relief so we can rebuild and stand tall again.”

Parin Behrooz contributed reporting.

Farnaz Fassihi is the United Nations bureau chief for The Times, leading coverage of the organization. She also covers Iran and has written about conflict in the Middle East for 15 years.