헝가리 선거: 유권자들 EU 정책 변화 원하지만 우크라이나에는 강경 입장, 여론조사 결과
Hungary election: Voters want new EU approach, but tough on Ukraine, poll shows
Deutsche Welle
Mark Hallam News and current affairs writer and editor with DW since 2006.@marks_hallam
DE
2026-04-09 14:45
Translated
헝가리 선거를 앞두고 실시된 신규 여론조사에 따르면 대다수 유권자들이 EU와의 관계에 적어도 경미한 변화를 원하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 우크라이나에 대한 재정 지원에 대한 회의적 입장과 국내 문제를 우선시하는 유권자들의 의견도 드러났다.
As Hungary's April 12 general election nears, opinion polls continue to point to a slight lead for Peter Magyar, the challenger to longstanding incumbent Viktor Orban, albeit with many voters still undecided and results varying by polling institute.
A poll published by IDEA in Hungary on Thursday found that 30% supported Orban's Fidesz party, 39% supported Magyar's Tisza, while a potentially decisive 21% said they were yet to decide how they would vote.
But another study published on Thursday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) suggests that while Orban is not out of the running in his bid for a sixth term as prime minister, even his supporters are prone to disagree with him on some foreign policy points.
It suggests that a majority of voters in the EU and NATO member state — and even around half of the supporters of Fidesz — would like to see changes in the country's antagonistic stance towards the EU. However, it also found voters were skeptical of support for Ukraine against Russia and opposed Kyiv's ambitions to join the bloc.
Approval for the current US administration was split quite clearly along party lines as Washington lobbies for Orban's reelection. Three in four Fidesz supporters called Donald Trump a good leader for the US, while four in five Tisza supporters called him a bad one.
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The representative poll of 1,001 people conducted between March 26 and April 1 pointed to a majority desire for less friction in ties with the EU — overwhelmingly within Magyar's camp but also across around half of Orban's supporter base.
"Despite Viktor Orban's protracted criticism of the European Union, our new survey reveals that two-thirds of Hungarians 'trust' the EU and overwhelmingly support maintaining their country’s membership of the bloc," Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow and polling lead at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said.
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Orban has made criticism of the EU and of support for Ukraine in its war against Russia into a core campaign point. At last month's EU leaders' summit, the last one before the election, Orban blocked approval of a major loan for Kyiv first agreed last December.
The study found that the government's opposition to support for Ukraine "has cut-through" with the public, which largely opposed Kyiv's desire to join the bloc.
"Hungary's European partners should not expect a complete U-turn on foreign policy matters in the event of a Magyar victory," Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, said. "Indeed, on the subject of Ukraine, there is division and scepticism among Tisza and Fidesz voter blocs about the merits of future financial packages for Kyiv and approving Ukraine's bid to join the European Union. This suggests that Budapest won't become easily aligned with all the aspects of EU foreign policy, irrespective of Sunday's result."
The ECFR's findings also suggested that these stark divisions on foreign policy questions might not prove the decisive factors in Sunday's vote.
Only 6% of respondents, for instance — 10% of Tisza supporters and 2% of Fidesz supporters — considered "relations with the EU" as the single most important issue facing Hungary at present.
Tisza supporters instead pointed to corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%) and the cost of living and inflation (17%) as their top three issues. Fidesz supporters, meanwhile, named energy security (22%) and cost of living and inflation (20%) at the top of the tree.
The poll, just like the Hungarian IDEA survey also released on Thursday, found that roughly one in five people were still undecided. Roughly 60% of this cohort also said that they would definitely turn out to vote on Sunday.
Edited by: Alex Berry
A poll published by IDEA in Hungary on Thursday found that 30% supported Orban's Fidesz party, 39% supported Magyar's Tisza, while a potentially decisive 21% said they were yet to decide how they would vote.
But another study published on Thursday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) suggests that while Orban is not out of the running in his bid for a sixth term as prime minister, even his supporters are prone to disagree with him on some foreign policy points.
It suggests that a majority of voters in the EU and NATO member state — and even around half of the supporters of Fidesz — would like to see changes in the country's antagonistic stance towards the EU. However, it also found voters were skeptical of support for Ukraine against Russia and opposed Kyiv's ambitions to join the bloc.
Approval for the current US administration was split quite clearly along party lines as Washington lobbies for Orban's reelection. Three in four Fidesz supporters called Donald Trump a good leader for the US, while four in five Tisza supporters called him a bad one.
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
The representative poll of 1,001 people conducted between March 26 and April 1 pointed to a majority desire for less friction in ties with the EU — overwhelmingly within Magyar's camp but also across around half of Orban's supporter base.
"Despite Viktor Orban's protracted criticism of the European Union, our new survey reveals that two-thirds of Hungarians 'trust' the EU and overwhelmingly support maintaining their country’s membership of the bloc," Pawel Zerka, senior policy fellow and polling lead at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said.
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
Orban has made criticism of the EU and of support for Ukraine in its war against Russia into a core campaign point. At last month's EU leaders' summit, the last one before the election, Orban blocked approval of a major loan for Kyiv first agreed last December.
The study found that the government's opposition to support for Ukraine "has cut-through" with the public, which largely opposed Kyiv's desire to join the bloc.
"Hungary's European partners should not expect a complete U-turn on foreign policy matters in the event of a Magyar victory," Piotr Buras, senior policy fellow and head of ECFR’s Warsaw office, said. "Indeed, on the subject of Ukraine, there is division and scepticism among Tisza and Fidesz voter blocs about the merits of future financial packages for Kyiv and approving Ukraine's bid to join the European Union. This suggests that Budapest won't become easily aligned with all the aspects of EU foreign policy, irrespective of Sunday's result."
The ECFR's findings also suggested that these stark divisions on foreign policy questions might not prove the decisive factors in Sunday's vote.
Only 6% of respondents, for instance — 10% of Tisza supporters and 2% of Fidesz supporters — considered "relations with the EU" as the single most important issue facing Hungary at present.
Tisza supporters instead pointed to corruption and governance (31%), public services (18%) and the cost of living and inflation (17%) as their top three issues. Fidesz supporters, meanwhile, named energy security (22%) and cost of living and inflation (20%) at the top of the tree.
The poll, just like the Hungarian IDEA survey also released on Thursday, found that roughly one in five people were still undecided. Roughly 60% of this cohort also said that they would definitely turn out to vote on Sunday.
Edited by: Alex Berry