사실 vs 인플루언서: '두바이의 꿈'이 정말 끝났을까?
Facts vs. influencers: Is the 'Dubai dream' really over?
Deutsche Welle
Cathrin Schaer Author for the Middle East desk.
DE
2026-04-09 09:56
Translated
이란 전쟁 와중에도 영원한 태양의 에미리트 두바이에서 일상이 계속된다고 주장하는 주민들이 있는 반면, '두바이의 꿈'이 끝났으며 다시는 돌아오지 않을 것이라고 선언하는 사람들도 있다. 누가 맞을까?
A slew of recent headlines have proclaimed that the Iran war marks the end of the so-called "Dubai dream," where foreigners seek a tax-free, luxury lifestyle in the United Arab Emirates.
"The unravelling of Dubai as a safe haven," US magazine the New Yorker wrote. "Could this be the end of Dubai?" a New York Times columnist asked.
The Daily Mail took uncommon pleasure in the fact that social-media-savvy influencers living glamorous lives in eternally sunny Dubai were being forced to leave. The British tabloid has run dozens of articles about "the great Dubai exodus" and how "the glittering tax-free influencer fantasy is unravelling."
Part of that "unravelling" involves the arrest of influencers and others for disseminating pictures of damage done to the city by Iranian attacks. Legal aid organization Detained in Dubai believes that over 100 individuals, including Europeans, have been arrested by UAE authorities under cybercrime or national security laws. If found guilty, they may face high fines or years behind bars.
According to the UAE defense ministry, Iran has shot over 2,200 drones and more than 500 ballistic missiles at the country since the war began, with some strikes reportedly hitting Dubai airport as well as residential buildings and hotels in the city.
At the same time though, UAE authorities have tried to maintain an impression of safety and normality in Dubai. Leaders have toured shopping malls where businesses have been asked to stay open and operate as usual.
Some UAE media and prominent social media accounts have pushed a counter-narrative. This insists life is going on as normal and that Dubai is still safe.
There is no doubt serious economic damage has been done to Dubai, the second-largest emirate of seven that make up the UAE.
The emirate of Abu Dhabi actually holds most of the UAE's oil — around 96% — which is why the vast majority part of Dubai's own income is from non-oil activities, like tourism, financial services, technology, real estate and logistics.
Dubai has a population of around 3.8 million but only about 10% of the population are native Emiratis. The influx of immigrants, as residents, investors or tourists, has driven Dubai's economic growth as demand for goods and services increased along with the population.
"The UAE's expatriate population is central to economic development trajectories within the country," a 2021 analysis by the Arab Gulf States Institute, a Washington-based think tank, pointed out. This is why "population contractions driven by outflows of expatriates are likely to have outsized economic impact."
Numbers are not available as to exactly how many foreign residents have left Dubai, either permanently or temporarily, since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Reports suggest tens of thousands have fled.
Tourism inflows have also been substantially reduced. Interviews with tourism-focused businesses indicate decreases in visitor numbers of up to around 80%. The publication Arabian Gulf Business Insight noted that in March, Dubai's hotel occupancy rates were way down.
There have also been losses in other areas. The Dubai stock market's benchmark index has lost 16% in value during the war. Managers in financial services have asked staff to work from home and some even evacuated employees. Real estate prices have fallen from record highs and market observers have said buyers were withdrawing from planned purchases.
Local authorities are trying to assist. Over the past fortnight, the UAE put together a package of measures worth around $272 million (€235 million) to try to help.
The package grants three additional months to pay government fees, including hotel sales fees and tourist taxes, as well as more time to file customs declarations. UAE authorities are also funding plans to stimulate tourism once the war ends.
They also want to relax rules on tax status and residency for foreigners, the UK's Financial Times suggested in mid-March, to persuade the foreigners who left to come back.
"Dubai was one of the first regional governments to launch an economic support program beyond resilience packages by central banks," said Robert Mogielnicki, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. "There is a sense that Dubai has to get ahead of the curve in its response, given the heavy targeting of the UAE and the importance of Dubai's non-oil economy."
Mogielnicki and others said that, in financial terms, Dubai is far from over.
"Dubai's hard-hit economy will require a major rebound to get closer to normal," Mogielnicki told DW. "Many observers continue to be optimistic about the emirate's resilience. A Dubai that's well adjusted to the region's post-conflict political economy seems very plausible."
Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Columbia University's center on global energy policy, agreed.
"My general view is that, yes, Dubai can rebound," the expert on Gulf state economies told DW. "Dubai will always be a regional hub. It represents an ideal of economic freedom and luxury along with dependable state services and a regularity of law and business operations that few in the region experience in their home countries."
"In my assessment, the UAE's core strengths remain intact," confirmed Martin Henkelmann, head of the German-Emirati Joint Council for Industry and Commerce, which supports German businesses in the UAE. "Even in the face of current challenges, the UAE is well-positioned to recover quickly."
Henkelmann points to how the UAE recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic. "But," he told DW, "this positive outlook is contingent upon a swift resolution of the conflict."
One of the first wartime economic indicators out of the UAE also supports that argument.
In early April, US financial intelligence firm, S&P Global, published its March purchasing managers index, or PMI, for the UAE. For the index, purchasing managers at companies are asked about their expectations for orders and production.
Dubai's PMI fell from 54.6 in February to 53.2 in March. But a PMI above 50 still represents progress.
"The UAE non-oil private sector was knocked back by the impacts of the war," David Owen, a senior economist at S&P Global said in a statement. "That said, for many firms, orders books were resilient and output expanded."
But there have also been less tangible losses for Dubai. These are reputational, even emotional and include pictures of luxury hotels on fire and the headline-making arrests of influencers in what is still an authoritarian state. These losses may be much harder to correct.
"For years, the UAE's brand — and that of Dubai in particular— was underpinned by its claim to be an island of stability in a dangerous neighborhood," the Financial Times wrote.
So it's uncertain whether high-net-worth individuals and luxury-loving influencers return in the same numbers as before, especially if they have other options.
"Expats are a key demographic for Dubai," Mogielnicki argued. "So I suspect there will be concerted efforts made and strong incentives offered to retain, pull back, and continue to attract expatriates going forward. It won't be the easiest sell, but it is a commercial pitch that Dubai will keep making."
Edited by: R. Casey
"The unravelling of Dubai as a safe haven," US magazine the New Yorker wrote. "Could this be the end of Dubai?" a New York Times columnist asked.
The Daily Mail took uncommon pleasure in the fact that social-media-savvy influencers living glamorous lives in eternally sunny Dubai were being forced to leave. The British tabloid has run dozens of articles about "the great Dubai exodus" and how "the glittering tax-free influencer fantasy is unravelling."
Part of that "unravelling" involves the arrest of influencers and others for disseminating pictures of damage done to the city by Iranian attacks. Legal aid organization Detained in Dubai believes that over 100 individuals, including Europeans, have been arrested by UAE authorities under cybercrime or national security laws. If found guilty, they may face high fines or years behind bars.
According to the UAE defense ministry, Iran has shot over 2,200 drones and more than 500 ballistic missiles at the country since the war began, with some strikes reportedly hitting Dubai airport as well as residential buildings and hotels in the city.
At the same time though, UAE authorities have tried to maintain an impression of safety and normality in Dubai. Leaders have toured shopping malls where businesses have been asked to stay open and operate as usual.
Some UAE media and prominent social media accounts have pushed a counter-narrative. This insists life is going on as normal and that Dubai is still safe.
There is no doubt serious economic damage has been done to Dubai, the second-largest emirate of seven that make up the UAE.
The emirate of Abu Dhabi actually holds most of the UAE's oil — around 96% — which is why the vast majority part of Dubai's own income is from non-oil activities, like tourism, financial services, technology, real estate and logistics.
Dubai has a population of around 3.8 million but only about 10% of the population are native Emiratis. The influx of immigrants, as residents, investors or tourists, has driven Dubai's economic growth as demand for goods and services increased along with the population.
"The UAE's expatriate population is central to economic development trajectories within the country," a 2021 analysis by the Arab Gulf States Institute, a Washington-based think tank, pointed out. This is why "population contractions driven by outflows of expatriates are likely to have outsized economic impact."
Numbers are not available as to exactly how many foreign residents have left Dubai, either permanently or temporarily, since the US and Israel attacked Iran in late February. Reports suggest tens of thousands have fled.
Tourism inflows have also been substantially reduced. Interviews with tourism-focused businesses indicate decreases in visitor numbers of up to around 80%. The publication Arabian Gulf Business Insight noted that in March, Dubai's hotel occupancy rates were way down.
There have also been losses in other areas. The Dubai stock market's benchmark index has lost 16% in value during the war. Managers in financial services have asked staff to work from home and some even evacuated employees. Real estate prices have fallen from record highs and market observers have said buyers were withdrawing from planned purchases.
Local authorities are trying to assist. Over the past fortnight, the UAE put together a package of measures worth around $272 million (€235 million) to try to help.
The package grants three additional months to pay government fees, including hotel sales fees and tourist taxes, as well as more time to file customs declarations. UAE authorities are also funding plans to stimulate tourism once the war ends.
They also want to relax rules on tax status and residency for foreigners, the UK's Financial Times suggested in mid-March, to persuade the foreigners who left to come back.
"Dubai was one of the first regional governments to launch an economic support program beyond resilience packages by central banks," said Robert Mogielnicki, a non-resident fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute. "There is a sense that Dubai has to get ahead of the curve in its response, given the heavy targeting of the UAE and the importance of Dubai's non-oil economy."
Mogielnicki and others said that, in financial terms, Dubai is far from over.
"Dubai's hard-hit economy will require a major rebound to get closer to normal," Mogielnicki told DW. "Many observers continue to be optimistic about the emirate's resilience. A Dubai that's well adjusted to the region's post-conflict political economy seems very plausible."
Karen Young, a senior research scholar at the Columbia University's center on global energy policy, agreed.
"My general view is that, yes, Dubai can rebound," the expert on Gulf state economies told DW. "Dubai will always be a regional hub. It represents an ideal of economic freedom and luxury along with dependable state services and a regularity of law and business operations that few in the region experience in their home countries."
"In my assessment, the UAE's core strengths remain intact," confirmed Martin Henkelmann, head of the German-Emirati Joint Council for Industry and Commerce, which supports German businesses in the UAE. "Even in the face of current challenges, the UAE is well-positioned to recover quickly."
Henkelmann points to how the UAE recovered after the COVID-19 pandemic. "But," he told DW, "this positive outlook is contingent upon a swift resolution of the conflict."
One of the first wartime economic indicators out of the UAE also supports that argument.
In early April, US financial intelligence firm, S&P Global, published its March purchasing managers index, or PMI, for the UAE. For the index, purchasing managers at companies are asked about their expectations for orders and production.
Dubai's PMI fell from 54.6 in February to 53.2 in March. But a PMI above 50 still represents progress.
"The UAE non-oil private sector was knocked back by the impacts of the war," David Owen, a senior economist at S&P Global said in a statement. "That said, for many firms, orders books were resilient and output expanded."
But there have also been less tangible losses for Dubai. These are reputational, even emotional and include pictures of luxury hotels on fire and the headline-making arrests of influencers in what is still an authoritarian state. These losses may be much harder to correct.
"For years, the UAE's brand — and that of Dubai in particular— was underpinned by its claim to be an island of stability in a dangerous neighborhood," the Financial Times wrote.
So it's uncertain whether high-net-worth individuals and luxury-loving influencers return in the same numbers as before, especially if they have other options.
"Expats are a key demographic for Dubai," Mogielnicki argued. "So I suspect there will be concerted efforts made and strong incentives offered to retain, pull back, and continue to attract expatriates going forward. It won't be the easiest sell, but it is a commercial pitch that Dubai will keep making."
Edited by: R. Casey